#海大学术# 海洋科学与工程学院专家讲座：应用Unscented Transformation方法预估入水的圆柱体轨迹（美国新奥尔良大学余小川主任研究员）
讲座题目：应用Unscented Transformation方法预估入水的圆柱体轨迹
主 讲 人：余小川 博士 （美国新奥尔良大学主任研究员）
讲座时间：2019年12月6日（周五）下午13:30-15:00
讲座地点：海洋楼109
讲座内容：
Experiments show that the behavior of dropped cylindrical objects may be stochastic if small disturbances exist at the initial moment. An envelope of various trajectories can be obtained from experimental tests. In addition, numerical results also indicate that small changes of initial states, e.g., drop angle, rolling frequency, and the selection of drag coefficient, affect the trajectory greatly. If the initial state follows the Gaussian distribution, it can be considered as a nonlinear prediction problem. The Unscented Transformation (UT) method, as a deterministic sampling method, can be used to predict the trajectory. In this paper, we firstly present a systematic formulation of the cylinder’s three-degree-of-freedom (3DOF) of motions as a state space model. Secondly, the UT method and the interval estimation method are employed to solve this prediction problem. Finally, the predicted trajectories will be compared with the experimental data. Meanwhile, two performance parameters are first proposed to evaluate the accuracy of predicted trajectory. Both parameters can be directly applied to the salvage and recovery of dropped objects in the offshore operations. In addition, the numerical results also show that the UT method is an efficient way to predict the trajectory of cylinders freely dropped into water.
讲座题目：应用Unscented Transformation方法预估入水的圆柱体轨迹
主 讲 人：余小川 博士 （美国新奥尔良大学主任研究员）
讲座时间：2019年12月6日（周五）下午13:30-15:00
讲座地点：海洋楼109
讲座内容：
Experiments show that the behavior of dropped cylindrical objects may be stochastic if small disturbances exist at the initial moment. An envelope of various trajectories can be obtained from experimental tests. In addition, numerical results also indicate that small changes of initial states, e.g., drop angle, rolling frequency, and the selection of drag coefficient, affect the trajectory greatly. If the initial state follows the Gaussian distribution, it can be considered as a nonlinear prediction problem. The Unscented Transformation (UT) method, as a deterministic sampling method, can be used to predict the trajectory. In this paper, we firstly present a systematic formulation of the cylinder’s three-degree-of-freedom (3DOF) of motions as a state space model. Secondly, the UT method and the interval estimation method are employed to solve this prediction problem. Finally, the predicted trajectories will be compared with the experimental data. Meanwhile, two performance parameters are first proposed to evaluate the accuracy of predicted trajectory. Both parameters can be directly applied to the salvage and recovery of dropped objects in the offshore operations. In addition, the numerical results also show that the UT method is an efficient way to predict the trajectory of cylinders freely dropped into water.
肺癌病例解答:
男，结直肠癌，患者54岁，高血压治疗中。双肾多发结石，曾多次行微创手术移除。2019年6月体检发现CEA偏高，大便潜血。至医院进一步检查发现距肛门约10cm-19cm巨型肿物，诊断为直肠癌（uT4aN2bM0）。2019年7月11日开始接收25次的放疗并口服卡培他滨。现放疗治疗结束，等待6周后复查并准备接受外科根治切除手术。治疗前：CEA:15.72、CA-199:60.4、肌酐：145.3；治疗后：CEA: 6.65、CA-199：35.21、肌酐：163.8
问题：患者肾功能不全，是否可以在等待复查6周的这段时间内接受相应治疗？再接受外科根治切除手术之后，肾功能不全的患者如何接受化疗？
答：建议患者在在等待复查6周的这段时间内不要接受有可能进一步损害肾功能的治疗，并定期复查肾功能，如好转则好；如进一步恶化则需完善相关检查，明确肾功能损害病因，尽可能使肾功能恢复到正常或可接受的异常升高状态。肾功能损害严重，不宜行化疗，并积极治疗，恢复肾功能；肾功能轻度损害，跟进肌酐清除率情况减量用药，并注意肾功能的保护。
男，结直肠癌，患者54岁，高血压治疗中。双肾多发结石，曾多次行微创手术移除。2019年6月体检发现CEA偏高，大便潜血。至医院进一步检查发现距肛门约10cm-19cm巨型肿物，诊断为直肠癌（uT4aN2bM0）。2019年7月11日开始接收25次的放疗并口服卡培他滨。现放疗治疗结束，等待6周后复查并准备接受外科根治切除手术。治疗前：CEA:15.72、CA-199:60.4、肌酐：145.3；治疗后：CEA: 6.65、CA-199：35.21、肌酐：163.8
问题：患者肾功能不全，是否可以在等待复查6周的这段时间内接受相应治疗？再接受外科根治切除手术之后，肾功能不全的患者如何接受化疗？
答：建议患者在在等待复查6周的这段时间内不要接受有可能进一步损害肾功能的治疗，并定期复查肾功能，如好转则好；如进一步恶化则需完善相关检查，明确肾功能损害病因，尽可能使肾功能恢复到正常或可接受的异常升高状态。肾功能损害严重，不宜行化疗，并积极治疗，恢复肾功能；肾功能轻度损害，跟进肌酐清除率情况减量用药，并注意肾功能的保护。
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你是‘乐观主义者’ 还是 ‘悲观主义者’？ 到了萄醉就知道！周末欢乐时光 2-4PM，¥25/杯葡萄酒
#gotwine# https://t.cn/z8CJ9h1
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