#人生感悟[超话]# I'd like to think that in the end, it's us, but I can't help myself from wondering if you're another lesson, another person to teach me something, someone I don't get to keep. There's no doubt, I'm not second guessing what we have, i'm just scared to lose it. So much loss in this life, enough for the next one to come. So I look at the moon and I make my wish, that it's you and me in this life and the next. https://t.cn/A6KJNj5b
What If
While 2Y Treasury yields are back at 5%, Jay Powell cited 'there has been a lack of further progress this year on inflation,' indicating that the current level of the rate will be higher for longer as needed. This time, the Fed and ECB may not remain at the same pace, and if the Fed holds the rate until Y25, will there be new breaks for the economy?
Instead, I really like the discussion from a completely new perspective. Not to mention new breaks, let’s just look at the break that may have been caused - name one if there’s any. Economy, Labor Market, Corporate Earnings, Financial Markets, US Dollar, etc. So, to turn around, what if the rate hike actually sparks an economic boom? It’s off the textbook bcoz fundamentally we have a massive and growing budget deficit that strongly supports the resilient economy, enabling easier-than-ever financial conditions thus boosting markets.
We’ve mentioned the commercial property crisis and the aftermath of unsustainable debt growth. Almost certainly, there will be real risks if there are no rate cuts through the year and then have all delivered starting from 2025. At some point in 2H, we should still expect one or two cuts, as the Fed remains data-dependent.
While 2Y Treasury yields are back at 5%, Jay Powell cited 'there has been a lack of further progress this year on inflation,' indicating that the current level of the rate will be higher for longer as needed. This time, the Fed and ECB may not remain at the same pace, and if the Fed holds the rate until Y25, will there be new breaks for the economy?
Instead, I really like the discussion from a completely new perspective. Not to mention new breaks, let’s just look at the break that may have been caused - name one if there’s any. Economy, Labor Market, Corporate Earnings, Financial Markets, US Dollar, etc. So, to turn around, what if the rate hike actually sparks an economic boom? It’s off the textbook bcoz fundamentally we have a massive and growing budget deficit that strongly supports the resilient economy, enabling easier-than-ever financial conditions thus boosting markets.
We’ve mentioned the commercial property crisis and the aftermath of unsustainable debt growth. Almost certainly, there will be real risks if there are no rate cuts through the year and then have all delivered starting from 2025. At some point in 2H, we should still expect one or two cuts, as the Fed remains data-dependent.
【英译汉欣赏】From now on, I began to carefully choose my life, I will not easily let myself lost in a variety of temptations. I have heard the call from a far, and then do not need to turn back to care about all of the blame and comments. I have no time to take care of the past, I have to go forward. 从现在起，我开始谨慎地选择我的生活，我不再轻易让自己迷失在各种诱惑里，我心中已经听到来自远方的呼唤，再不需要回过头去关心身后的种种是非与议论。我已无暇顾及过去，我要向前走。
——米兰·昆德拉《不能承受的生命之轻》#翻译[超话]# https://t.cn/EJaR4B9
——米兰·昆德拉《不能承受的生命之轻》#翻译[超话]# https://t.cn/EJaR4B9
✋热门推荐