如果降落伞不出问题的概率是80％，
你愿意带着它跳伞吗？
#摘抄感悟#
巴菲特：“I prefer to structure investing as a no-called-strikes game and just wait for the fat one”，他希望把投资变成一个永不出局的游戏，永远等待那个非常确定的击球机会。
#今日摘抄#
Coke is now getting a royalty on swallows; probably 7.2 billion a day. If this average gulp is one ounce. I feel 100% sure (perhaps mistakenly) that I know the odds of this continuing-again 100% as long as cola doesn’t cause cancer. Bill has an even better royalty-one which I would never bet against but I don’t feel I am capable of assessing probabilities about, except to the extent that with a gun to my head and forced to make a guess, I would go with it rather than against. But to calibrate whether my certainty is 80% or 55%, say. For a 20-year run would be folly. if I had to make such decisions, I would do my best but I prefer to structure investing as a no-called-strikes game and just wait for the fat one. （可口可乐现在每天从每一口咽下去的饮料中获得版税，可能达到72亿美元。如果这个平均吞咽量是一盎司，我有 100% 的把握（也许是错误的）认为这种情况会持续下去——只要可乐不会引起癌症。比尔有一个更好的使用权，我永远不会打赌反对它，但我不认为自己能够对概率进行评估，除非在被逼无奈、被指着枪膛必须猜测的情况下，我会选择赞同它而不是反对它。但要衡量我的确信度是 80% 还是 55%，例如为期 20 年的周期，那就是愚蠢的。如果我必须做出这样的决定，我会尽力而为，但我更喜欢将投资变成永不出局的无风险游戏，并等待好的机会。）
I watched Ted Williams on cable the other day and he referred to a book called the science of hitting which I then ran down. It has a drawing of the batters box in it that he had referred to on the show with lots of little squares in it, all parts of the strike zone. In his favourites spot, the box showed .400 reflecting what he felt he would hit if he only swung at pitches in that area. Low and outsized, but still in the strike zone, he got down to .260. Of course, if he had two strikes on him, he was going to swing at that .260 pitch but otherwise he waited for one in the “happy zone” as he put it. I think the same approach makes sense in investing.（我之前有一天在电视上看到了泰德·威廉姆斯，他提到了一本书叫《打击科学》。我随后去查了一下这本书。书里有一个击球区的图画，他在节目中提到了它，上面有很多小方格，都是打击区域的一部分。在他最喜欢的位置上，方框里写着.400，反映了他认为如果他只击打那个区域的球，他将能够达到的击球率。如果球低而大，但仍在打击区内，他的击球率将下降至0.260。当然，如果他面临两个被投手投到一个区域的机会，他会击打那个0.260的球，但除此之外，他会等待一个“甜蜜区”的球。我认为这种方法在投资方面也是有意义的。）
Your happy zone, because of the business experience you have had, what you see every day, your natural talents, etc. is going to be different than mine. I am sure, moreover that you can hit balls better in my happy zone than l can in yours just because they are fatter pitches in general. （由于你拥有的商业经验、每天看到的事情、天生的才能等等，你的“甜蜜区域”会与我的不同。此外，我相信你在我的快乐区域中打球会比我在你的快乐区域中打得更好，只是因为一般来说它们是更好击打的球。）
#今日晨读#
你愿意带着它跳伞吗？
#摘抄感悟#
巴菲特：“I prefer to structure investing as a no-called-strikes game and just wait for the fat one”，他希望把投资变成一个永不出局的游戏，永远等待那个非常确定的击球机会。
#今日摘抄#
Coke is now getting a royalty on swallows; probably 7.2 billion a day. If this average gulp is one ounce. I feel 100% sure (perhaps mistakenly) that I know the odds of this continuing-again 100% as long as cola doesn’t cause cancer. Bill has an even better royalty-one which I would never bet against but I don’t feel I am capable of assessing probabilities about, except to the extent that with a gun to my head and forced to make a guess, I would go with it rather than against. But to calibrate whether my certainty is 80% or 55%, say. For a 20-year run would be folly. if I had to make such decisions, I would do my best but I prefer to structure investing as a no-called-strikes game and just wait for the fat one. （可口可乐现在每天从每一口咽下去的饮料中获得版税，可能达到72亿美元。如果这个平均吞咽量是一盎司，我有 100% 的把握（也许是错误的）认为这种情况会持续下去——只要可乐不会引起癌症。比尔有一个更好的使用权，我永远不会打赌反对它，但我不认为自己能够对概率进行评估，除非在被逼无奈、被指着枪膛必须猜测的情况下，我会选择赞同它而不是反对它。但要衡量我的确信度是 80% 还是 55%，例如为期 20 年的周期，那就是愚蠢的。如果我必须做出这样的决定，我会尽力而为，但我更喜欢将投资变成永不出局的无风险游戏，并等待好的机会。）
I watched Ted Williams on cable the other day and he referred to a book called the science of hitting which I then ran down. It has a drawing of the batters box in it that he had referred to on the show with lots of little squares in it, all parts of the strike zone. In his favourites spot, the box showed .400 reflecting what he felt he would hit if he only swung at pitches in that area. Low and outsized, but still in the strike zone, he got down to .260. Of course, if he had two strikes on him, he was going to swing at that .260 pitch but otherwise he waited for one in the “happy zone” as he put it. I think the same approach makes sense in investing.（我之前有一天在电视上看到了泰德·威廉姆斯，他提到了一本书叫《打击科学》。我随后去查了一下这本书。书里有一个击球区的图画，他在节目中提到了它，上面有很多小方格，都是打击区域的一部分。在他最喜欢的位置上，方框里写着.400，反映了他认为如果他只击打那个区域的球，他将能够达到的击球率。如果球低而大，但仍在打击区内，他的击球率将下降至0.260。当然，如果他面临两个被投手投到一个区域的机会，他会击打那个0.260的球，但除此之外，他会等待一个“甜蜜区”的球。我认为这种方法在投资方面也是有意义的。）
Your happy zone, because of the business experience you have had, what you see every day, your natural talents, etc. is going to be different than mine. I am sure, moreover that you can hit balls better in my happy zone than l can in yours just because they are fatter pitches in general. （由于你拥有的商业经验、每天看到的事情、天生的才能等等，你的“甜蜜区域”会与我的不同。此外，我相信你在我的快乐区域中打球会比我在你的快乐区域中打得更好，只是因为一般来说它们是更好击打的球。）
#今日晨读#
我分享了【招7人！河南省教育考试命题与评价中心2023年公开招聘工作人员】, 快来看吧！ | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTk2MDczNQ==&mid=2651256398&idx=2&sn=89efab4a6a91ca0b3ccb0f48fd6d659f&chksm=8b453dbebc32b4a8e5e9c53e24ac70da984e9aae176100984e2fb69d95e80a907d30147a2788&sessionid=1684193411&scene=126&subscene=91&clicktime=1684194026&enterid=1684194026&ascene=3&fasttmpl_type=0&fasttmpl_fullversion=6680662-zh_CN-zip&fasttmpl_flag=0&realreporttime=1684194026184&devicetype=android-30&version=28002353&nettype=WIFI&abtest_cookie=AAACAA%3D%3D&lang=zh_CN&session_us=gh_69039eaa6c69&countrycode=CN&exportkey=n_ChQIAhIQXdwiNNS%2FOYMc1eqLzef5oxLrAQIE97dBBAEAAAAAAOK%2FMY%2BiopUAAAAOpnltbLcz9gKNyK89dVj0Blw%2Ft%2BpAJ4IcVBrxOxv3KT4K7YLbJ3tiGgEhi6zo1ht1SkR%2Bx9%2BAx0zxGgz61fdpi4Otzh5nwkGydQjayjVgT%2F7cce%2BC6UFGNSwx6E1MPAaTfpv%2FID2PtqaQxuSV6JGv49q6lcLyzeHbRaGoAADFtgrEEodu%2BB8blrBr4EczdopkKLTgLcreAFHRP9%2FC0oLk0yxH0LVc02zU%2F6q6X%2B%2FKPVyYR9WY84bCFsk%2BwfSP0ieWBAi%2FJ9a3KrCzLR4rajs5gpOM5cc%3D&pass_ticket=IrbZjwPwO%2Fz0ugg1c9VD91XPFhN0rxf48My0MQ7wVdQ%2F4nxLyH3BKNntmrmHyHSBwZ2ZWfznrn%2B7XrwYIR9bfA%3D%3D&wx_header=3
洗涤视界·技术 | 这样的中央洗衣工厂羽绒服机洗工艺编制，可以轻松应对羽绒服洗涤旺季
前言✦
对以集约化生产为特征的中央洗衣工厂而言，任何一个洗衣旺季，羽绒服都是洗涤量非常大的一个衣物品类。传统的羽绒服洗涤以人工刷洗为主，费时费力不说，而且洗涤品质和产能都较低。所以，如何以机器代替人工，采用科学的洗涤工艺，借助高品质的洗涤化料，是每一个洗衣人和中央洗衣工厂管理人员都要面对的课题。
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUxODY4NjU2Ng==&mid=2247508505&idx=4&sn=13015174b1685872e5c430349220326d&chksm=f987f010cef079066a078557aad3999b43556f560da279cf384e363be3cec40d0d5e41f4d47e&scene=126&sessionid=1680955858&subscene=227&key=6a16a961311a0ee0240b948336a30619128288ca5bf74b1d9cdc95c011f142e61a9184ef11ad065664a420561e9393ae0df54d9becd6552d783f2d90018d845acbb2ebfd7985918a348f02fa4e3e9bea3191ed79aaad39685fca154992e22c6e41811272930865eed04c61af7a681b732fa3fc55a29b13f99aa8910db9e3f361&ascene=0&uin=NjcxNTM0MTQx&devicetype=Windows+11+x64&version=63090217&lang=zh_CN&countrycode=CN&exportkey=n_ChQIAhIQtFekD%2FvVvgICyk76MGx5%2BxLfAQIE97dBBAEAAAAAAPGYBYeuFToAAAAOpnltbLcz9gKNyK89dVj0f0Sneju%2FqvtQaeJ9fjEe6a5IzZeQ7diE5MY2LLShQKyR3ZRFln9S5F6a6AgRJEtnZy5XQtDSWjmVl42oRwv%2Fge75GAO8JnQ3cAjdpH0DIINLC8i6n%2BQUa%2F1eWi6aN7u21V82pHBhsAbAwCHGxsGuXkxOoX1KytvsZutmZrbwnSxP4KXmyHwN284AsYUXFzQdaoQRNXjgmGWQjV6T8%2Bwmf2m4bTTSdAiWwPGgzcFUSxW3x%2BaXM2%2FkrQo%3D&acctmode=0&pass_ticket=Urt4pgb6JbQagMDHVa3Vdat1KztVT%2BYADwNT5XUbz2i2v1zO303Q9h8Tsw4iiq0xCxhhLMrbPNYBn0emQK6O1Q%3D%3D&wx_header=1&fontgear=2
前言✦
对以集约化生产为特征的中央洗衣工厂而言，任何一个洗衣旺季，羽绒服都是洗涤量非常大的一个衣物品类。传统的羽绒服洗涤以人工刷洗为主，费时费力不说，而且洗涤品质和产能都较低。所以，如何以机器代替人工，采用科学的洗涤工艺，借助高品质的洗涤化料，是每一个洗衣人和中央洗衣工厂管理人员都要面对的课题。
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUxODY4NjU2Ng==&mid=2247508505&idx=4&sn=13015174b1685872e5c430349220326d&chksm=f987f010cef079066a078557aad3999b43556f560da279cf384e363be3cec40d0d5e41f4d47e&scene=126&sessionid=1680955858&subscene=227&key=6a16a961311a0ee0240b948336a30619128288ca5bf74b1d9cdc95c011f142e61a9184ef11ad065664a420561e9393ae0df54d9becd6552d783f2d90018d845acbb2ebfd7985918a348f02fa4e3e9bea3191ed79aaad39685fca154992e22c6e41811272930865eed04c61af7a681b732fa3fc55a29b13f99aa8910db9e3f361&ascene=0&uin=NjcxNTM0MTQx&devicetype=Windows+11+x64&version=63090217&lang=zh_CN&countrycode=CN&exportkey=n_ChQIAhIQtFekD%2FvVvgICyk76MGx5%2BxLfAQIE97dBBAEAAAAAAPGYBYeuFToAAAAOpnltbLcz9gKNyK89dVj0f0Sneju%2FqvtQaeJ9fjEe6a5IzZeQ7diE5MY2LLShQKyR3ZRFln9S5F6a6AgRJEtnZy5XQtDSWjmVl42oRwv%2Fge75GAO8JnQ3cAjdpH0DIINLC8i6n%2BQUa%2F1eWi6aN7u21V82pHBhsAbAwCHGxsGuXkxOoX1KytvsZutmZrbwnSxP4KXmyHwN284AsYUXFzQdaoQRNXjgmGWQjV6T8%2Bwmf2m4bTTSdAiWwPGgzcFUSxW3x%2BaXM2%2FkrQo%3D&acctmode=0&pass_ticket=Urt4pgb6JbQagMDHVa3Vdat1KztVT%2BYADwNT5XUbz2i2v1zO303Q9h8Tsw4iiq0xCxhhLMrbPNYBn0emQK6O1Q%3D%3D&wx_header=1&fontgear=2
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