我们从上半年的结果中学到了什么？

What we learnt from 1H21 results？

1. Lacklustre NBV outlook due to ongoing agent restructuring and product mix developments, impacting volumes and margins.

2. Life persistency and surrenders also deteriorated; P&C COR under pressure but base effects could improve from 4Q21.

3. Life NBV recovery remains elusive.

① There are limited signs of a strong rebound in life NBV growth as new business volumes are adversely impacted by agent restructuring and new business margins are negatively affected by product mix.

② meanwhile persistency and surrender ratios also deteriorated.

③ There is also greater emphasis on developing pension products as well as health and old-age services.

④ Our forecasts imply 5-20% NBV decline over 2021/2020 due to more stable development over 2H21/2H20 (+2% to -16%) vs 1H21/1H20 (-9% to -25%).

4. P&C trends may be more encouraging.

① Motor P&C growth could recover in 4Q21 given base effects, the motor COR should stabilise (after rising but rebalancing between loss and expense ratios), while growth in non-motor lines should continue.

② Commentary during 1H21 results suggests Henan flood losses are manageable.

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#化学#
共轭效应 (conjugated effect) ，又称离域效应，是指共轭体系中由于原子间的相互影响而使体系内的π电子（或p电子）分布发生变化的一种电子效应。凡共轭体系上的取代基能降低体系的π电子云密度，则这些基团有吸电子共轭效应，用-C表示，如-COOH，-CHO，-COR；凡共轭体系上的取代基能增高共轭体系的π电子云密度，则这些基团有给电子共轭效应，用+C表示，如-NH2，-R、-OH。