戏局谬误”（ludic fallacy）。
有这么一个故事，有两个人，一个叫胖托尼，从银行混出来，了解融资贷款的各种门道，是个散漫而乐观的聪明人，还有一个叫约翰博士，是一位一丝不苟的保险精算师，就是那种读完报纸会整整齐齐叠起来的理性派。
塔勒布跟这俩人玩一个游戏，就是把一枚硬币抛了99次，都是正面朝上，假设硬币没有被做过手脚，问他们，第100次抛这个硬币，正面朝上的概率是多少？
约翰博士的回答是：50%。
而胖托尼的回答是：不到1%。
胖托尼的理由是，如果抛了99次都是正向向上的，你还觉得这个硬币没有被动过手脚，那么你不是个草包也是个傻子，这不可能是个公平的游戏。
请问，你赞同约翰博士还是胖托尼呢？
塔勒布把约翰博士这样的人，称为“愚者”，因为他们是按照条条框框思考的人，生活在理想的封闭世界里，他们掌握的知识，塔勒布称之为柏拉图式的知识。
而胖托尼是完全跳出框架思考的，他掌握的，是真实世界里的生存逻辑。而我们之所以会更在意柏拉图式的知识，是因为这样的知识既简单，又经过了美化，天生容易被看到。这就是“戏局谬误”，用游戏的简单模型，来预测真实世界的复杂状况。
思想家纳西姆·塔勒布《黑天鹅》。 https://t.cn/R2WJLuV
有这么一个故事，有两个人，一个叫胖托尼，从银行混出来，了解融资贷款的各种门道，是个散漫而乐观的聪明人，还有一个叫约翰博士，是一位一丝不苟的保险精算师，就是那种读完报纸会整整齐齐叠起来的理性派。
塔勒布跟这俩人玩一个游戏，就是把一枚硬币抛了99次，都是正面朝上，假设硬币没有被做过手脚，问他们，第100次抛这个硬币，正面朝上的概率是多少？
约翰博士的回答是：50%。
而胖托尼的回答是：不到1%。
胖托尼的理由是，如果抛了99次都是正向向上的，你还觉得这个硬币没有被动过手脚，那么你不是个草包也是个傻子，这不可能是个公平的游戏。
请问，你赞同约翰博士还是胖托尼呢？
塔勒布把约翰博士这样的人，称为“愚者”，因为他们是按照条条框框思考的人，生活在理想的封闭世界里，他们掌握的知识，塔勒布称之为柏拉图式的知识。
而胖托尼是完全跳出框架思考的，他掌握的，是真实世界里的生存逻辑。而我们之所以会更在意柏拉图式的知识，是因为这样的知识既简单，又经过了美化，天生容易被看到。这就是“戏局谬误”，用游戏的简单模型，来预测真实世界的复杂状况。
思想家纳西姆·塔勒布《黑天鹅》。 https://t.cn/R2WJLuV
#保蕾老师的早课99天# Day 70 fickle 浮躁
Everyone wants to be a better version of myself. Passion does help, but it doesn't always help. If you wear your passion like a badge of honor, it is kinda ridiculous and ludic. This is because passion is nothing but a direction. It just gives you a vague goal. But what you really need to do is to think about how to step toward your passion and if you could rise above all the obstacles and difficulties that get in the road. This path to passion is destined to be lonely, and you should make sure that if you could bear this loneliness. Talking about passion frequently is more like chicken soup for the soul. What passion has brought you most is disappointment and desperation. Since you are desired to get it, you are more likely to tumble and lose. It is not the state of wu-wei. My strategy is that set a big goal but do something small day in and day out. Try your best to step further than yesterday and to be a better version of yourself. That is enough and comparison is nothing but monkey mind that disturb you and exhaust your energy. Don't be lazy and mind your own business.
别把梦想show给别人看，那可是你的心~~~
Everyone wants to be a better version of myself. Passion does help, but it doesn't always help. If you wear your passion like a badge of honor, it is kinda ridiculous and ludic. This is because passion is nothing but a direction. It just gives you a vague goal. But what you really need to do is to think about how to step toward your passion and if you could rise above all the obstacles and difficulties that get in the road. This path to passion is destined to be lonely, and you should make sure that if you could bear this loneliness. Talking about passion frequently is more like chicken soup for the soul. What passion has brought you most is disappointment and desperation. Since you are desired to get it, you are more likely to tumble and lose. It is not the state of wu-wei. My strategy is that set a big goal but do something small day in and day out. Try your best to step further than yesterday and to be a better version of yourself. That is enough and comparison is nothing but monkey mind that disturb you and exhaust your energy. Don't be lazy and mind your own business.
别把梦想show给别人看，那可是你的心~~~
#自娱笔记# ：每日一词
今天分享的词是：ludic，意为游戏的、玩耍的、顽皮的（of, relating to, or characterized by play），意同playful：
来看一个例句：
"[Mo] Willems's humor is often ludic…. The classic shaggy-dog structure of 'I Broke My Trunk!' centers on Gerald [an elephant] telling a long heroic story that involves him balancing on his trunk first just Hippo … and then also Rhino … and then also Hippo's big sister, playing a grand piano." — Rivka Galchen, The New Yorker, 6 Feb. 2017
虽然ludic的词义是很轻快的，但其本身是一个严肃的学术词汇表达。大约在1940年，心理学家希望找到一个词汇（当然如果用playing就显得不学术了），作为描述儿童行为的术语表达，所以他们就弄出了这个：ludic activity
慢慢的，ludic这个词的使用开始不限于学术范畴，其可以用来形容建筑风格，叙事手法或者文学色彩（it can refer to architecture that is playful，narrative that is humorous and even satirical，and literature that is light）
从词源上看，ludic来自拉丁语名词ludus（意为一切和玩乐有关的事物），有一个与ludic同源的词汇我们可能更熟悉一点：ludicrous（completely unreasonable, stupid, or wrong = ridiculous）
今天分享的词是：ludic，意为游戏的、玩耍的、顽皮的（of, relating to, or characterized by play），意同playful：
来看一个例句：
"[Mo] Willems's humor is often ludic…. The classic shaggy-dog structure of 'I Broke My Trunk!' centers on Gerald [an elephant] telling a long heroic story that involves him balancing on his trunk first just Hippo … and then also Rhino … and then also Hippo's big sister, playing a grand piano." — Rivka Galchen, The New Yorker, 6 Feb. 2017
虽然ludic的词义是很轻快的，但其本身是一个严肃的学术词汇表达。大约在1940年，心理学家希望找到一个词汇（当然如果用playing就显得不学术了），作为描述儿童行为的术语表达，所以他们就弄出了这个：ludic activity
慢慢的，ludic这个词的使用开始不限于学术范畴，其可以用来形容建筑风格，叙事手法或者文学色彩（it can refer to architecture that is playful，narrative that is humorous and even satirical，and literature that is light）
从词源上看，ludic来自拉丁语名词ludus（意为一切和玩乐有关的事物），有一个与ludic同源的词汇我们可能更熟悉一点：ludicrous（completely unreasonable, stupid, or wrong = ridiculous）
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