今年5月,Immunity上刊发了一篇关于COVID-19与群体免疫的文章,下面是这篇文章做出的估计。
“如果在没有疫苗接种的情况下,以自然传播的方式实现群体免疫。假设每个国家的免疫人口比例均为67%(R0 = 3,即一个感染者可以传染三个人的情况),COVID-19感染者死亡率(IFR)为0.2%,0.6%和1.0%。到2020年4月10日,COVID-19发病率最高的前20个国家的绝对死亡人数预期如下图C所示。”
Randolph, H.E., and Barreiro, L.B. (2020). Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19. Immunity 52, 737-741. https://t.cn/A6UJDKsv
如文章中所说,上述估计存在着明显的问题,明显低估了死亡率。按照现在的数据,IFR在5%左右,是文章中估计的最高死亡率的五倍。
“如果在没有疫苗接种的情况下,以自然传播的方式实现群体免疫。假设每个国家的免疫人口比例均为67%(R0 = 3,即一个感染者可以传染三个人的情况),COVID-19感染者死亡率(IFR)为0.2%,0.6%和1.0%。到2020年4月10日,COVID-19发病率最高的前20个国家的绝对死亡人数预期如下图C所示。”
Randolph, H.E., and Barreiro, L.B. (2020). Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19. Immunity 52, 737-741. https://t.cn/A6UJDKsv
如文章中所说,上述估计存在着明显的问题,明显低估了死亡率。按照现在的数据,IFR在5%左右,是文章中估计的最高死亡率的五倍。
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Why choose Quirónsalud?
Quirónsalud is the leading hospital group in Spain and, following a merger with the German companyFresenius-Helios, it is the largest hospital group in Europe. We have over 60 years’ experience in caring for people’s health. We have first-class hospitals, world-renowned experts, cutting-edge medical technology, the highest safety standards and a strong commitment to quality which drives us to provide each patient with unique and personalised care.
Website: https://t.cn/A6AVNwCE
Email: L.b@aicy-create.com
WeChat: 15618343219
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